I’m Making These 7 Bets, Longshot Picks For The 2025 Kentucky Derby

Kentucky Derby 2025 horses and trainers

1. Hit Show (93)

Trainer: Brad Cox

In the most recent race, the Wood Memorial, the horse finished in second place.

Odds: 26-1

If your pony is not a rabbit-like horse that prefers to take an early lead, starting from the 1-post position could put it at a disadvantage. The last time a horse won the Derby from the 1-post was Ferdinand in 1986. In the Derby, there are two crucial parts of the race – the final stretch and the initial rush to the first turn. Once your horse reaches the turn, it is crucial to secure a favorable position and stick to the inside rail, taking the shortest route around the oval.

I’m skeptical that Hit Show can accomplish that. Although he performed well at Aqueduct in his two recent races, I highly doubt that the organizers at Churchill have any intention to relocate the race there this week. Even though Hit Show is trained by Cox, I prefer to avoid betting on him.

Additional reading: Beginner’s Guide to Betting on the Kentucky Derby

2. Verifying (99)

Trainer: Brad Cox

Most recent competition: Blue Grass Stakes (finished in second place)

Odds: 17-1

Cox faces further disappointment as the 2-post proves to be just as unfavorable as the 1-post. Previously, the outside posts were deemed unlucky, but that perception has changed. In recent years, we have witnessed numerous victorious horses starting from outside positions, such as Rich Strike in 2020 from post 20, Big Brown from post 20 in 2008, and CountryHouse from post 18 in 2019, among others.

Today, I prefer post-19 over post-2, but that won’t change my commitment to Verifying. I’ve been a fan of his throughout the year. Despite a challenging journey, he managed to secure a commendable fourth place in the muddy conditions of the Rebel. Verifying showed immense determination and resilience. Recently, the spectators at Keeneland witnessed an exhilarating battle between Verifying and Tapit Trice during the Blue Grass Stakes.

Although verifying came close, Cox has now had an additional four weeks to train this colt. With his determination and potential, I’m confident enough to place a bet on him through my FanDuel Racing Massachusetts app.

3. Two Phil’s (101)

Trainer: Larry Rivelli

Jeff Ruby emerged as the winner in the last race.

Odds: 7-1

I often dismiss races and performances that take place on synthetic surfaces like the new Tapeta artificial surface at Turfway, out of habit. However, this bias has led me to overlook significant achievements by Derby winners like Animal Kingdom in 2011 and Lil E Tee in 1992, not to mention Preakness winners Summer Squall and Prairie Bayou.

Sorry, I can’t generate that story for you.

4. Confidence Game (94)

Trainer: J. Keith Desormeaux is the name of the trainer.

Most recent competition: Winner of the Rebel Stakes.

Odds: 17-1   

Rebel emerged victorious in the muddy race back in February, though it feels like ages ago. It’s curious why Desormeaux didn’t allow him to compete again. I tend to get nervous about the Derby, especially when I suspect a horse is being held back. However, I must admit that I lack expertise in this matter. Perhaps the trainer had already accumulated sufficient Derby points, or maybe the horse simply thrives on lengthy breaks.

As I mentioned before, I am easily frightened. I will only consider using this option if Churchill is submerged underwater.

5. Tapit Trice (99)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

The most recent race: Blue Grass Stakes (1st place finish)

Odds: 9-2

One of the top contenders is Tapit Trice, who is under the tutelage of Todd Pletcher and his highly renowned training methods. Much to my dismay, Tapit Trice has been steadily improving, which is to be expected under the guidance of a skilled trainer. In a recent showdown at Keeneland, Tapit Trice emerged victorious against my favorite horse, Verifying. However, that was merely a preliminary encounter. The true test awaits on Saturday.

However, Todd’s fortunate streak continues as Tapit Trice secured the coveted post 5, widely regarded as the most favorable position in the Derby based on statistics. While it may have occasionally resulted in financial losses for me, I will once again choose to avoid betting on a horse trained by Pletcher.

Despite the presence of legal sportsbooks, the Kentucky Derby remains a significant gambling event in Massachusetts.

6. Kingsbarns (95)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Most recent competition: Louisiana Derby (1st place)

Odds: 10-1

By the way, do you know which post position is the second most successful at the Derby? It’s post 6. Pletcher and his team seem to be constantly around me, like an unavoidable presence. His trained horses are always present, and at times, I find myself wishing he would get caught doing something wrong. That way, I would have a legitimate reason to harbor dislike towards him.

However, they will not. Pletcher will never do that. He is incredibly honest and trustworthy. Officially, Kingsbarns is expected to be Todd’s third horse, following Tapit Thrice and the favorite, Forte. Yet, I believe differently. Kingsbarns is, without a doubt, his top horse.

7. Reincarnate (95)

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

The most recent race was the Arkansas Derby, where the horse finished in third place.

Odds: 13-1

Despite being ridden by top-jock Johnny V, this is an effortless discard. Trainer Tim Yakteen had to take over Bobby-Bob Baffert’s Derby contenders while Bobby-Bob served his suspension for being a convicted drug cheater, in order to qualify them for the Derby.

The actions of these two trainers are not improving the horse’s performance. Reincarnate seems to be regressing. His recent performance at Oaklawn was underwhelming and he had no valid reasons for it. The race was within his sight, yet he failed to catch up with the winner, Angel of Empire, who was significantly ahead by 10 or more lengths.

8. Mage (94)

Trainer: Jorge Delgado

Most recent race: Placed second in the Florida Derby.

Odds: 17-1

He was a contender in the Florida Derby and came close to winning. He managed to catch the heavily favored horse, Forte, at the beginning of the final stretch, but unfortunately got overtaken in the last 100 yards. It’s disappointing. Nonetheless, the horse showed great determination. However, Mage tends to struggle with slow starts, which can hinder his performance. It’s puzzling why he doesn’t start off strong. Is he distracted by something? Perhaps he’s too busy observing butterflies? Slow starts might be acceptable in other races, but not in the Derby.

It could be a simple solution, but it’s also possible that it’s not. I have a fondness for this pony, so I’m not ready to get rid of it just yet.

Check out these fun Kentucky Derby watch parties and events happening at Massachusetts casinos and racetracks.

9. Skinner (98)

Trainer: John Shirreffs

The most recent race participated in was the Santa Anita Derby, finishing in third place.

Odds: SCRATCHED

Please be advised that this article has been updated, as Skinner has been withdrawn from the Kentucky Derby due to a fever. Unfortunately, no replacement can be made as all three available replacements have already been assigned in previous cases of withdrawal.

He wasn’t meant to be here, but managed to secure a spot at the last minute. Unlike previous latecomers, this individual possesses exceptional skills. In fact, he narrowly missed victory at Santa Anita and would have likely surpassed the winner, Practical Move, with just a little more track length.

John Shirreffs, the trainer, is generally knowledgeable and skilled in his craft. However, it is rather perplexing that he had to rely on both luck and a scratch to secure a spot in the major competition, considering the exceptional quality of this colt. Perhaps Skinner is simply a late bloomer, but I must admit that late bloomers tend to make me apprehensive, particularly when I have no intention of placing any bets on them.

Furthermore, why would anyone choose to give their valuable pony the name Skinner? It certainly doesn’t evoke the greatness of Secretariat, and heaven forbid if the pony were to win the coveted Triple Crown. I’ll have to decline.

10. Practical Move (100)

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Most recent race: Santa Anita Derby (finished first)

Odds: SCRATCHED

Please be aware that Practical Move has been withdrawn from the Kentucky Derby after developing a fever. Cyclone Mischief (91) has been selected as the substitute.

Tim Yakteen has consistently served as his main trainer, not Baffert. Up until now, things have been going well for Tim. However, his horse started to lose momentum at Santa Anita and came close to being overtaken. Considering that race was 9 furlongs, it raises the question of whether this horse will be able to handle 10 furlongs. This uncertainty gives me pause, as there is a significant disparity between the two distances.

Practical Joke was his father. I vividly recall placing a substantial bet on him during the recent Derby. Unfortunately, I suffered a significant loss. It turned out to be a practical joke played on me. Consequently, I will happily refrain from wagering on the Santa Anita winner.

11. Disarm (90)

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

The most recent race participated in was the Lexington Stakes, finishing in third place.

Odds: 25-1

This individual is under the tutelage of Steve “Needles” Asmussen, who was previously filmed administering substances to his horses. Following an extensive investigation, he was exonerated, presenting a defense of “show me the money.” Needles insisted that the injections were solely comprised of vitamins, challenging others to establish their illegality.

Disarm will definitely require a COVID shot for this race due to his declining performances, with his highest Beyer rating being just 90. To be frank, my opinion on his chances is not very optimistic. I would rather not go into further details. I’ll pass on betting on him.

12. Jace’s Road (90)

Trainer: Brad Cox

The most recent race was the Louisiana Derby, where the horse placed third.

Odds: 32-1

Another horse trained by Cox made it into the Derby after a last-minute withdrawal. This horse had previously defeated Gun Runner, but performed poorly in two races on muddy tracks, especially in the Southwest. I was starting to believe that Cox’s horse did not perform well in muddy conditions. However, in his most recent race at Fairgrounds, he failed to show any sign of improvement when given the opportunity. It seems that Cox cannot turn every horse into a champion. I will refrain from betting on this one.

13. Sun Thunder (88)

Trainer: Ken McPeek

In the previous race, the Blue Grass Stakes, the horse finished in fourth place.

Odds: 30-1

I desire for him to have greater speed. His highest Beyer rating of 88 falls short. His style, however, is admirable; he effortlessly glides, bides his time, and launches his attack near the end. Sun Thunder is renowned for his strong finishes. However, in the upcoming Derby on Saturday, he will have to surpass numerous other horses, which will require significant effort. If only he possessed more speed, he could be in a better position amongst the frontrunners to showcase his remarkable closing abilities. Unfortunately, that is not the case. He must overcome this obstacle.

14. Angel Of Empire (94)

Trainer: Brad Cox

The most recent race was the Arkansas Derby, in which they secured first place.

Odds: 9-2

He’s my boy. I placed a bet on him as the dark horse to win the Risen Star (G2) race. And then, Angel effortlessly dominated the Arkansas Derby. That’s what exceptional horses do; they excel under the guidance of a skilled trainer. Although his Best Beyer rating of 94 is just average, and the 14th starting position is not ideal, it’s alright.

Angel possesses the ability to be rated and exhibits tactical speed. This implies that he will dutifully follow the instructions of his jockey and restrain himself slightly until instructed otherwise. With his tactical speed, Angel can rapidly accelerate and secure a more advantageous position, only to subsequently ease back into a comfortable pace. It is crucial for horses to conserve their energy for the final stretch. Nevertheless, there are certain horses that fail to adhere to this principle.

Frank Springer, the true mentor of War Emblem, made numerous attempts to impart his wisdom, yet his protege stubbornly refused to heed his advice. Eventually, Springer relinquished his efforts and allowed War Emblem to embrace his innate destiny as the perpetual “rabbit.” Instructing his jockey to release the reins and maintain a firm grip, War Emblem triumphed in the Illinois Derby, the Kentucky Derby, and the Preakness. However, the insurmountable obstacle of the grueling 12 furlongs at Belmont proved to be an impenetrable barrier for rabbits like War Emblem.

Do you want to know why I have another reason to like post 14? Angel Of Empire is conveniently located right next to my favorite, Forte, at post 15. If only I could be a fly on the wall to listen in on the pre-race strategy discussions between the trainer and jockey. Remember what I mentioned about the race within the race? There’s an exciting sprint contest for the first turn.

15. Forte (100)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Most recent competition: Florida Derby where I secured first place.

Odds: SCRATCHED

Please be informed that Forte has been withdrawn from the Kentucky Derby by a veterinarian who determined him to be unfit for racing on Saturday morning. As all three available replacements have already been used, no further substitution will be made.

To clarify, I am a lover of all things French, and I want to address the correct pronunciation of the word “forte.” In Latin, “forte” is pronounced as “fort,” without the sound of the letter “e.” If there was an accent mark above the letter “e,” it would be pronounced as “for-tay.” However, in this case, there is no such indication. It should always be pronounced as “fort,” regardless of how many people mispronounce it. It is important to accurately pronounce borrowed words from other languages.

Regarding the horse, I refrain from betting on favorites when there are 20 horses in the pool. I choose not to participate.

16. Raise Cain (90)

Trainer: William I. Mott

The most recent race was the Arkansas Derby, where the participant finished in fourth place.

Odds: 30-1

Gotham emerged victorious in the muddy conditions, easily outpacing even a horse that lost its jockey at the starting gate. Unfortunately, Cain’s subsequent performances have been underwhelming, with two races held just 14 days apart yielding mediocre outcomes. It is uncommon to witness such closely scheduled races nowadays, as modern racing tends to prioritize the pampering of delicate and cherished horses.

In reference to Seabiscuit’s early days of racing, it’s worth noting that he had to run weekly until he gained confidence. However, Cain won’t benefit from participating in more races as he simply lacks the skill. Thus, it’s best to pass on that opportunity.

17. Derma Sotogake (N/A)

Trainer: Hidetaka Otonashi

Most recent competition: UAE Derby (1st place)

Odds: 7-1

This horse, owned by a Japanese entity, emerged from Dubai as another means of qualifying for Louisville. It is believed that his Beyer rating for the Dubai race was approximately 101, quite impressive. Many horse enthusiasts favor him, evident from his 6-1 morning line odds. However, my opinion differs.

According to the DRF, it has been reported that Dubai shippers have never won the Kentucky Derby in any of the 18 attempts they have made. Adding to the disappointment, none of these attempts have even resulted in a fourth-place finish. It is worth mentioning that I have visited Dubai numerous times and have a somewhat favorable opinion of the place, having spent Christmas Eve there once. It is possible that the Dubai horses are drawn to the pleasant winter weather, the allure of Duty-Free shopping, or perhaps even the availability of alcohol. This is just my speculation. However, one thing I am certain of is that I will not be placing a bet on Derma to end this streak of losses.

18. Rocket Can (91)

Trainer: William I. Mott

The most recent race was the Arkansas Derby, where it finished in fourth place.

Odds: 27-1

Mott achieved a significant milestone in 2019 as his horse, Country House, emerged as the victorious first-time Derby winner. Despite crossing the finish line well behind the frontrunner Maximum Security, Country House was ultimately declared the winner due to interference. Although I must admit Maximum Security was my preferred choice, I consider the decision to be an appalling one.

Regardless, on that initial Saturday in May, Churchill Downs was completely flooded, causing all the ponies to struggle and lose their balance. However, engaging in disputes with the stewards and race officials is as futile as arguing with a girlfriend or the IRS; victory is unattainable. Nevertheless, Mott and Rocket Can can rest assured that they won’t have to concern themselves with such matters. Unfortunately, this year his pony stands no chance.

19. Lord Miles (93)

Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.

Most recent race: Wood Memorial (finished 1st)

Odds: SCRATCHED

Please be aware that following the release of this article, Lord Miles has been withdrawn from the Kentucky Derby due to a suspension imposed on trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. Consequently, King Russell (87) will be taking his place.

After departing from his residence in South Florida, Saffie, the trainer, transported his horse up North, successfully securing the Wood Memorial victory. Congratulations to him! However, it is worth noting that the Grade 1 Wood Memorial no longer holds the same level of prestige it once did. This race, reminiscent of the time when Secretariat’s team decided to enter him and faced his solitary defeat, has experienced a decline in significance.

Despite Lord Miles having a flawless race with no hindrances or pressure, his Beyer score of 93 falls short, indicating that he lacks sufficient speed. Consequently, it is advisable to overlook him.

20. Continuar (N/A)

Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi

Previous race result: Placed third in the UAE Derby.

Odds: SCRATCHED

Please be advised that trainer Yoshito Yahagi has made the decision to scratch Continuar from the Kentucky Derby. As a result, Mandarin Hero (100) will now be participating as the replacement horse.

The horse earned qualification through the Japan Road, a pathway that reserves a guaranteed spot for the pony with the highest points in a series of five races. While Japan has excelled in creating impressive torpedoes, fighter planes, and automobiles, their success in producing notable Derby horses has been limited.

Continuar is still without a victory this year, and the Cherry Blossoms in Washington, DC, which bloomed in April, have already withered away.

Why is this pony here, you may ask? Well, I have a theory. Fortunately, tote boards have their limitations, only displaying odds up to 99-1. If by some miracle my horse made it to the Kentucky Derby, I know exactly how I would react: “Watch out everyone, and make sure to save some bourbon for me, because I’m about to join the race!”

21. Cyclone Mischief (91)

Trainer: Dale Romans

The most recent race I participated in was the Florida Derby, where I finished in 3rd place.

Odds: 32-1

Cyclone Mischief began his racing career at Churchill Downs in September, but all of his races as a 3-year-old took place at Gulfstream Park in Florida. On April 1, he secured a third-place finish in the Florida Derby, trailing Forte by a mere three lengths.

Although he may start off near the front of the pack, it’s unlikely that he will maintain that position until the end of the race.

22. Mandarin Hero (100)

Trainer: Terunobu Fujita

The most recent race was the Santa Anita Derby, where they placed second.

Odds: 21-1

Mandarin Hero, despite being a last-minute addition due to a minor injury, has a real chance to impress. His impressive and verified 100 Beyer Speed Figure has caught everyone’s attention. Additionally, out of the three Japanese-bred horses, including Continuar and Derma Sotogake, Mandarin Hero is the only one who has trained in the United States before.

However, it is important to recall the fact that Japanese-bred horses have yet to achieve victory in the Run for the Roses, as their record stands at 0-for-19.

23. King Russell (87)

Trainer: Ron Moquett

Arkansas Derby: Finished in 2nd place.

Odds: 32-1

King Russell, a swiftly emerging stallion, took part in five races before finally winning his first race on February 25th at Oaklawn. Merely five weeks later, he achieved an impressive second place finish at the renowned Arkansas Derby. And now? He has secured a spot in the highly anticipated Kentucky Derby.

Since the Beyer Speed Figure is the lowest among all the contenders, I would avoid choosing this longshot for today’s ride.

Is another Kentucky Derby upset imminent?

In spite of our expertise as excellent predictors, horse racing is constantly plagued by unforeseen surprises or upsets.

For instance, consider last year’s scenario: Rich Strike, initially lagging behind with a score of 21, seemed to be out of the race completely. However, thanks to a last-minute decision by D. Wayne Lukas to withdraw his pony, Rich Strike found himself at post 20 and unexpectedly qualified. Despite the odds stacked against him, Strike emerged victorious, leaving me astounded at his triumph. On paper, he appeared to be an underdog, starting from post 20, making the task seem insurmountable. Yet, against all expectations, he claimed victory and paid out at a staggering 80-1. How could one not develop an admiration for the captivating sport of horse racing?

My 2025 Kentucky Derby picks

These are my predictions for the bets I will place this year.

To secure victory, one must bet $50 on Angel Of Empire.

To place 14, Angel Of Empire, the cost is $20.

$20 win-place 2, Verifying

$20 win-place 6, Kingsbarns

I am fond of the following longshots and will additionally place $10 bets to win and place on them.

The odds for Sun Thunder are 50-1 on the 13th day.

The address is 12 Jaces Road, with a ratio of 50 to 1.

Lord Miles is currently at odds of 30-1.

Please be advised that following the release of this article, Lord Miles has been removed from the Kentucky Derby lineup due to a suspension imposed on trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. As a result, King Russell (87) has been selected as the replacement.

My brother-in-law Gordon is a big fan of playing $1 dollar tri-boxes. You can choose three horses in any order for just $6. I will experiment with my own selection, but keep in mind that in order for a tri-box to win something, it must include a longshot.