Play MA March Madness projections estimate that Massachusetts bettors may place bets exceeding $120 million on the largest college basketball event.
In perfect timing, the Massachusetts online sports betting market has recently been launched, coinciding with the much-awaited annual event on the sports betting calendar. This Thursday marks the commencement of the Division I men’s NCAA Tournament, which is set to bring forth an exciting and intense atmosphere.
After the state’s three casinos opened sportsbooks on Jan. 31, six sportsbook operators launched last week. Even though Massachusetts does not have any teams in the field of 68, residents from all over the state can place bets on March Madness games until the Final Four in Houston next month.
To arrive at this March Madness projection, Play MA utilized a methodology that involved analyzing comparable markets during the initial phase, surveying data, and studying national betting trends observed during major events like the NCAA Tournament and the Super Bowl.
March Madness betting without local teams
Massachusetts remains unrepresented in the Big Dance for the third tournament in a row.
While Massachusetts may not participate, the enthusiasm for March Madness betting remains high among Bay Staters, just like the rest of the nation. With a staggering 67 games, March Madness surpasses the Super Bowl in terms of betting activity.
Before the launch, Massachusetts lawmakers and regulators engaged in extensive discussions, weighing the advantages of betting on college sports. They faced the challenge of finding a balance between the immense popularity of events like March Madness and the risk of match-fixing scandals involving financially susceptible college athletes.
In the end, legislators banned betting on Massachusetts college teams unless they participated in a multi-team tournament like March Madness. Interestingly, this NCAA Tournament season, the people of MA who enjoy sports betting do not find much benefit from this exception.
But, in March, the spotlight won’t belong solely to the men. The women’s side, although not mentioned in the Play MA projections, will also have its moment. Holy Cross, a 15-seed, secured a spot in the NCAA Tournament and is set to face No. 2 Maryland in the first round on Friday.
Calculating Massachusetts online sports betting estimates
According to Play MA and other industry experts, it is estimated that the amount of money wagered on March Madness is approximately 2 1/2 times higher than the amount wagered on the Super Bowl in a given state. This assumption has been proven true in similar markets.
The estimated handle for Arizona’s March Madness in March 2022 is believed to have ranged from $138.2 million to $172.8 million, taking into account breakdowns observed in similar markets.
Additionally, Play MA projected that Arizona’s 2022 Super Bowl handle would amount to $39.4 million, which is only one-third of our conservative estimate for Arizona’s March Madness handle. This suggests that Play MA’s projected increase from the Super Bowl to March Madness in Massachusetts is relatively modest.
Given Massachusetts’ shorter ramp-up time, it is conservative to estimate that Arizona online sports betting started in September 2021, six months prior to March Madness, while Massachusetts launched their online sports betting just a week before the first NCAA Tournament game.
Judging industry betting activity projections
In relation to March Madness, handle estimates attract significant attention and make headlines. An instance of this is when the American Gaming Association unveiled survey findings stating that a whopping $15.5 billion will be wagered by 68 million Americans on the event.
Nevertheless, it is important to note that the aforementioned figure encompasses both bracket pools and sportsbook activity, making it an unreliable indicator of the sports betting handle specifically at legal sportsbooks. Hence, even with state-by-state breakdowns, this information fails to provide a helpful guide for sports betting enthusiasts.
Looking at historical data and examining trends in other markets provides more reliable guidance.
The estimated projection is most susceptible to disruption due to the close proximity between the launch of online sportsbooks and the onset of March Madness. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that retail sportsbooks were already operational a month in advance and had been actively promoting their services before and after their launch.
According to a recent survey conducted by Play MA, approximately 81% of sports fans in Massachusetts were aware of the scheduled launch date of online sports betting, which was set for March 10. This increased awareness among sports fans could potentially result in a significant influx of customers who are interested in using the new sportsbook apps and placing bets with great enthusiasm.
Massachusetts online sportsbooks are eagerly anticipating a successful customer acquisition period during March Madness, which will greatly contribute to their strong performance in the upcoming fall season when sports seasons resume. The weeks of March Madness hold immense importance for these sportsbooks in Massachusetts.
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