The Truth Behind ‘Jerry & Marge Go Large’

Let’s analyze the accuracy of the film “Jerry & Marge Go Large,” released on Paramount+. The movie portrays a couple who capitalizes on a loophole found in two state lotteries, including the Massachusetts Lottery. We will examine the extent to which the film stays true to the real events and determine the degree of Hollywood embellishment in “Jerry & Marge Go Large.”

Nowadays, the Massachusetts Lottery offers a wide variety of games for players, but none of them resemble the ones depicted in movies.

In 2017, The Boston Globe proudly declared that the Massachusetts state lottery had the highest number of repeat winners compared to any other state. Among these winners, some were operating within the confines of the law, while others were not. Paramount’s film, “Jerry & Marge Go Large,” showcases a handful of the most remarkable endeavors undertaken against the Massachusetts Lottery in its history.

In the film, one operation was headed by Jerry and Marge Selbee from Evart, MI, played by Bryan Cranston and Annette Bening. The second operation, led by a vengeful individual named Tyler, comprised a group of Harvard students. Both groups discovered a flaw in the game known as Cash Winfall and cleverly used it to generate millions in profits.

While the film remains generally faithful to the truth, several important details were modified.

Winfall and Cash Winfall games

The lottery draw games featured in the film were Winfall in Michigan and Cash Winfall in Massachusetts. These two games were quite similar in gameplay.

In Michigan, each ticket for the game was priced at $1. Players had the opportunity to select six numbers from a range of 1 to 49, with the maximum jackpot amount being $5 million. On the other hand, the Cash Winfall game in Massachusetts required a $2 ticket. Participants could choose numbers from 1 to 46, and the jackpot was limited to $2 million.

In the movie, Winfall is depicted as closing down suddenly, but in reality, the Selbees engaged in that game for a duration of two years, accumulating a substantial five-figure sum in winnings. After Winfall ceased operations in 2005, the Selbees decided to venture into Massachusetts.

The Selbees engaged in playing Cash Winfall for a duration of six years, participating in four plays annually, which occurred once every three months during the “roll downs.” They concluded their participation in January 2012 as Cash Winfall was subsequently discontinued. Overall, the Selbees amassed over $26 million in winnings.

The roll-down effect

The “loophole” exploited in the two Winfall games can be attributed to the roll-down effect, which is effectively depicted in the film.

Most lottery players are accustomed to witnessing lotto jackpots increase as nobody wins, but a roll down is the complete opposite. In the case of Mega Millions and Powerball, if no one manages to hit the jackpot, it does not continue to grow indefinitely. Instead, it goes through a roll down process where the accumulated funds are distributed among the winners in lower prize tiers.

There are two distinct characteristics of a roll down. Firstly, the jackpot is usually limited to a specific amount. Secondly, once this limit is reached, any additional funds contributed to the lottery will be distributed among the smaller prizes, enhancing their value. However, if someone manages to win the jackpot, the roll down feature becomes void.

Couple incorporated to help family, friends and community

The movie accurately portrays the Selbees’ approach. To gather the necessary funds, they offered shares of their company to their friends and family, which resulted in approximately twenty-four individuals joining them. With the capital generated from these shares, they were able to purchase a significant number of tickets in bulk.

The Selbees primarily allocated a significant portion of their winnings towards ensuring the education of their six children, 14 grandchildren, and 10 great-grandchildren. Additionally, they established a loan service to assist individuals seeking to enhance their businesses or acquire homes.

Jerry and Marge’s operation wasn’t entirely lawful

The Cash Winfall game at the stores where Jerry and Marge played was shut down by the Massachusetts Lottery, as depicted in the movie. Although the movie suggests that the lottery’s decision was arbitrary, the truth is that Jerry and Marge violated lottery regulations by operating the machines themselves.

A Boston Globe reporter witnessed the Selbees engaging in ticket pulling behind the counter. The film makes an effort to elucidate the Selbees’ method, but it lacks coherency. Additionally, the stores involved in the lottery violated a law that prohibits the purchase of tickets for absent players. The lottery did not specify whether Jerry and Marge were the individuals buying tickets for absentee players.

Jerry and Marge were responsible for the closure of the Cash Winfall machines in the stores they frequented.

College syndicate portrayed as one-entity villain

In the movie adaptation, several modifications were made to the portrayal of the college syndicate that manipulated the Cash Winfall system. Firstly, rather than being Harvard students, they were depicted as MIT students, possibly to add an air of exclusivity. Secondly, the movie introduced a fictional aspect by implying that the syndicate had plans to hinder Jerry and Marge. This alteration was likely included to incorporate a common narrative element of having an antagonist in the story.

In 2005, while the Selbees were venturing into Cash Winfall, James Harvey, an undergraduate student at MIT, decided to focus his final mathematics degree project on lotteries. Surprisingly, he stumbled upon the same loophole as Jerry Selbee. Inspired by the Selbees’ success, Harvey teamed up with some of his classmates and formed a business to collectively invest in tickets on a large scale. For the next five years, Harvey dedicated himself to this endeavor as his primary occupation. Similar to the Selbees, he reaped significant profits from this venture.

In addition to the MIT group, there was another college syndicate known as the Boston University group. This group of students, just like the Selbees and Harvey, participated in the lottery game. Interestingly, they were the first ones to realize that when multiple teams competed during the roll downs, the winnings were divided to such an extent that it became difficult to earn substantial profits.

MIT group forced a roll down

The MIT syndicate discovered in August 2010 that premature roll downs could be induced by manipulating specific conditions.

Using historical data, the Massachusetts Lottery predicted the roll-down periods. By monitoring the average ticket sales and ticket printing duration, they were able to establish that once the jackpot hit $1.7 million, a roll down would take place in the subsequent draw. If the jackpot remained below $1.7 million, it was highly unlikely that ticket sales would be sufficient to surpass $2 million.

The MIT syndicate came to a different conclusion. They discovered that they could manipulate the system to ensure that the jackpot draw would not exceed $1.6 million. In typical situations, the remaining ticket sales would not be sufficient to increase the next jackpot beyond $2 million.

By making a united effort, it could be possible. On August 12, 2010, when the unclaimed jackpot for Cash Winfall reached an estimated $1.59 million, the anticipated roll down was projected to occur in two or three weeks. Smart lottery players would have waited to play. However, the college syndicate took action and implemented their strategy.

For a significant portion of a year, the group dedicated their time to manually filling out 700,000 tickets. These tickets were then submitted all across Massachusetts within a span of a few days. The sheer abundance of ticket sales exceeded the lottery’s expectations and resulted in a roll down the following week. During this roll down, Harvey’s syndicate managed to generate over $700,000 in earnings.

In the US, these particular lottery games have become increasingly rare. While Florida still offers a few of them, the Selbees and college students who found ways to exploit loopholes in the system can no longer do so. On the other hand, such games are still prevalent in Europe.